With less than two weeks remaining in the WNBA regular season, the playoff field is nearly set. Four teams have already been eliminated from the playoffs, and while just four teams have clinched a playoff spot, we know four of the remaining five teams will round out the playoff field. The next nine days will determine playoff seeding and matchups and most importantly, health. Outside of the top spot, the league is wide open, and just about any team that makes the playoffs will be able to convince themselves that they are poised for a deep playoff run. With that in mind, this is the perfect time to look at the x-factors for each playoff team. When we look back at the playoffs following the season, these could be the things that determines who goes home early and who makes a run.

Minnesota Lynx - Isolation Offense

If the Minnesota Lynx are as inevitable as I think they are, the only real X-Factor is Napheesa Collier’s health. But that is boring, and even though the Lynx do nearly everything well, opposing teams still need to try something. If I were coaching one of their playoff opponents, that something would be to stay home on shooters and force Minnesota’s stars to consistently beat me one-on-one.  I think Minnesota is capable of winning that way, but maybe you can force them out of their comfort zone. Only the Liberty have scored a lower percentage of their twos unassisted, and no team has made a lower percentage of their threes unassisted. Minnesota is not as reliant on three-point shooting as they were earlier in the season, but they still lead the league in three-point percentage. Minnesota always has shooters on the floor, and if you help off them, they will make a high percentage. So I would try not to do that.

There are two major problems with this strategy: Minnesota does such a great job of screening, cutting, and moving the basketball that defending without sending help is nearly impossible. The other problem is that Napheesa Collier and Courtney Williams are entirely capable of punishing your defense if you don’t send help. Williams has done a good job of expanding her game to the three-point line, but she is still getting 38.4 percent of her two-point shots in the mid range, the highest percentage in the league. That is incredibly difficult to defend, and Napheesa Collier is even more difficult to deal with in the paint. Only Dearica Hamby and A’la Wilson are averaging more points in the paint this season.

Las Vegas Aces -  Crunch Time

The Aces have the second-best record in the league, while they are 8th in net rating. Las Vegas’s 102.8 defensive rating is an improvement from a month ago, and good enough to win another championship if the offense is elite. The offense has not been elite, ranking 6th in the WNBA, but they have found another level in the clutch. The Aces have a 29.0 clutch net rating, 9.5 points ahead of the Lynx in second place. If the Aces can keep their games close and make all their shots late, that could carry them through the playoffs. The Aces were better overall when they won their back-to-back titles in 2022 and 2023, but they were second in clutch net rating in 2022 and first in 2023. I still think the Lynx are a cut above the Aces, but Las Vegas has found a blueprint during their 12-game winning streak, and there is a chance it carries them through the playoffs.

Atlanta Dream - Brittney Griner

Griner has been enigmatic throughout much of her 11-year WNBA career, but no more so than this, her first season outside of Phoenix. Griner has come off the bench for all 10 games since returning from her neck injury, but Atlanta is 7-3 during that stretch. Overall, Griner is averaging just 21.2 minutes, down from her previous career-low of 27.6 in 2023. Atlanta has actually been much better with Griner off the court. Her -15.6 net rating differential is the worst in the league. Despite their success this season, I can’t help feeling like the Dream aren’t going to challenge the Liberty or the Aces, let alone the Lynx, without a vintage playoff performance from Griner. Atlanta’s defense is still much better with Griner on the court, and all of the contenders have All-WNBA bigs for her to defend. Offensively, I think Griner has to do a better job as a screener, freeing up her teammates for all the threes head coach Karl Smesko wants them to take. Atlanta also needs to do a better job getting her the ball in advantageous situations, and not just throwing her the ball in the post a few times every game.

Phoenix Mercury - Kahleah Copper

Copper was a Finals MVP in 2021 for a team that featured two future Hall-of-Famers. Copper is the third option on this team behind two All-WNBA players, but there is a good chance they will go as far as she can take them. Copper is second on the team in points and usage, but she is averaging her fewest points since 2022. In 2021, Copper averaged 3.3 more points per game in the playoffs than in the regular season. She got off to a slow start after missing the first 12 games of the season following knee surgery, and it has taken a while to develop chemistry with all of her new teammates. If she can raise her game to another level in the playoffs yet again, she could lead another surprisingly deep playoff run.

New York Liberty - Chemistry

I don’t think there is any arguing that the Liberty can field the best starting five in the league. A lineup of Natasha Cloud, Sabrina Ionescu, Breanna Stewart, Emma Meesseman and Jonquel Jones has no weaknesses on paper. It features two WNBA MVPS, a Finals MVP , an All-WNBA player and a two-time All-Defensive Team player. That lineup should have size, scoring, passing, shooting, and rebounding. The problem is we still haven’t those five play together. Meesseman joined the team late in the season following Eurobasket, and injuries to Stewart, Cloud and Ionescu has prevented New York from getting its best players time together. Contrast that to the Lynx, whos starting lineup of Courtney Williams, Kayla McBride, Courtney Williams, Alanna Smith and Bridget Carleton has played 426 minutes this season with a 16.1 net rating. They also played 491 minutes together in 2024 with a 21.9 net rating. That group isn’t as talented top to bottom as New York’s best five, but they have over 900 minutes together, and that kind of continuity is invaluable.

Golden State Valkyries - Home Court Advantage

Golden State has been a nice story in their first season, but if I’m being honest, they’ll be fortunate to win one playoff series and they have no chance of winning two. I don’t think their zone defense will be as effective when teams have time to gameplan it in the playoffs, and I just don’t think they have enough offense. Of the nine teams still alve for the playoffs, they have the worst offensive rating and the third-worst net rating. If Golden State is going to pull off an upset, I think their best chance is to defend their homecourt and steal a game on the road. Golden State is 12-7 at home and they have arguably the best atmosphere in the league thanks in part to their league-leading home attendance. You could argue they’ve had a playoff atmosphere at home all season, and it's only going to get better during the playoffs. If they can use their defense and home-court advantage to force a bunch of turnovers and get some easy buckets, I could see Golden State’s historic inaugural season lasting a bit longer.

Seattle Storm - Half Court Offense

Seattle has score 15.8 percent of its points on the fast break, the highest percentage in the league. Conventional wisdom is that the pace slows down and turnovers decrease in the playoffs, and if that is the case, Seattle could struggle to generate offense. Overall they have a 103.1 offensive rating. Among the nine teams still in playoff contention, only Golden State has been worse offensively. The one thing Seattle can hang its hat on is the lowest turnover rate in the league. That may be less of an advantage during the playoffs if all the teams are taking care of the ball. If Seattle cannot consistently get out in transition, I don’t know how they are going to score enough to compete.

Indiana Fever - Ball Movement

Much like the Lynx, the real answer to this question is the health of their best player. Indiana has a 9.1 net rating when Caitlin Clark is on the court and a 0.8 net rating with her off it. With the departure of DeWanna Bonner and the injuries to Aari McDonald and Sophie Cunningham, any chance of making a run without Clark has gone out the window.

That being said, Indiana has a 3.2 net rating in their last 15 games, all without Caitlin Clark. They are 11th in assist rate in those games, ahead of just Las Vegas and Connecticut. If they’re going to make the playoffs and scare their first-round opponent, they need better ball movement. That probably means the ball needs to be in Odyssey Sims’s hands whenever she is on the court. She is Indiana’s only healthy player with an assist rate over 20 percent, and she is the Fever’s best bet to move the ball consistently.

Los Angeles Sparks - Pace

Much like the Fever without Caitlin Clark, Los Angeles is drawing dead if they somehow make the playoffs. Whoever faces Minnesota in the first round has no shot, so any of these teams needs to finish in the top seven to have any chance. The Sparks are 2.5 games out of seventh, but more importantly, they can’t stop anyone. They have a 108.2 defensive rating and their offense isn’t nearly good enough to make up for that.

One of the Sparks’ myriad problems in the playoffs is that the pace slows down in the playoffs. The Sparks play at the fastest pace in the league, and that has driven much of their offensive success. If they’re going to push their first-round opponent, they need to control the pace. I would argue they need to play even faster than their 96.72 regular-season pace. We saw in the NBA playoffs how difficult it can be to keep up with a team that is constantly running for an entire game, so maybe that could work for the Sparks too.