At the beginning of June, in one of the first articles I ever wrote for LFG, I declared the Atlanta Dream looked like title contenders. One month after that, I reached a similar conclusion regarding the New York Liberty. Those articles are looking good now, as the Liberty and Dream are second and third in the league in net rating and tied for second place in the standings. Someone is going to reach the WNBA finals opposite the Minnesota Lynx, and as of this writing, those are the likeliest candidates.

That being said, what if the entire premise of those articles was wrong? What if this whole season, including the playoffs, is simply a prelude for the Minnesota Lynx winning a record fifth WNBA finals, surpassing the Houston Comets? I’ve been kicking this question around for weeks now, but it has never been more urgent than in this moment: What if the Minnesota Lynx are inevitable?

Following their second win of the season over the New York Liberty on Sunday, Minnesota is up 6.5 games over the Liberty and Dream with just 12-13 games remaining. If the Lynx can maintain this lead, they will make history. No team has finished more than four games clear of the rest of the league since 2011, when the Minnesota Lynx finished 27-7 and won the WNBA title. The Lynx are currently 27-5.

Based on previous league history, the Lynx are as inevitable as Thanos. The Lynx own a 14.5 net rating, which would be the fourth-best mark all-time. Since 2006, 11 teams have led the league with a net rating of 10.0 or higher. Ten of them made it to the WNBA finals, and nine of those won the title. And Minnesota has an advantage that many of those teams didn’t. The next best net rating in the league is the Atlanta Dream at 7.3. Only the Washington Mystics in 2019 had a larger gap between them and the next closest team. They finished with a 14.8 net rating while Las Vegas was second at 4.1. Interestingly enough, the Aces didn’t even make the WNBA finals that season. It was Connecticut, who was third in net rating but had the second-best record, who lost to the Mystics in the finals. This season appears to be similar to that one. Five teams have a positive net rating this season besides Minnesota, and all of them have a reasonable chance to make it to the WNBA finals, so long as they can avoid Minnesota’s half of the bracket. Atlanta is second in net rating on the strength of their five-game winning streak, followed by the Liberty at 6.9. Phoenix is fourth at 4.4, followed by Indiana at 4.2 and Seattle at 2.7. Those teams all have MVP candidates and future hall-of-famers, but they have one thing Minnesota doesn’t have: glaring weaknesses.

Minnesota has the best offensive rating and best defensive rating in the WNBA. They lead the league in assist-to-turnover ratio and effective field goal percentage. They lead the league in three-point makes and percentage, as well as blocks. They have committed the fewest personal fouls per game. Minnesota leads the league in points off turnovers and is second in fastbreak points. They have the presumptive MVP in Napheesa Collier and now have two of the favorites for 6th Player of the Year in DiJonai Carrington and Jessica Shepard.

The only area the Lynx aren’t dominant in is the interior. Collier, Shepard, Alanna Smith and Bridget Carleton form a formidable frontcourt rotation, and their floor spacing is a huge part of what the Lynx do on offense, but Minnesota is just 10th in the league in defensive rebounding rate and points in the paint, and they are 11th in free throw rate. If some team can dominate inside while staying home on shooters, they could potentially give Minnesota some trouble.

That is why I still think the Liberty is the biggest threat to Minnesota. New York narrowly defeated the Lynx in overtime in Game 5 of the 2024 WNBA finals, and both teams mostly returned the same roster. New York added former finals MVP Emma Meesseman four games ago to an already deep and talented roster. The other top teams in the league all have one or two All-Star-caliber forwards themselves, but New York appears best-suited to dominate inside.

The problem is that none of these teams can really compete with Minnesota on the perimeter. Courtney Williams and Kayla McBride have both made multiple All-Star games including this season, while DiJonai Carrington is the reigning Most Improved Player. After New York signed Meesseman, Minnesota responded by adding the only thing they were missing: a perimeter stopper. Carrington won’t help Minnesota’s floor spacing, but she should thrive as a second-side creator off the bounce while focusing most of her energy on defense.

The other advantage Minnesota has is that they are not only the best home team in the league but also the best road team. They will almost certainly have home-court advantage throughout the playoffs, and I don’t think any of the other teams are good enough on the road to win in Minnesota. Atlanta has the second-best road record in the league at 10-7. Los Angeles is next at 9-7 (they are currently 9th in the standings) followed by Phoenix (8-7), Indiana (8-8), Seattle (8-8) and New York (7-7). I don’t really trust any of those teams to win even one game on the road, and then they would still have to successfully defend their own home court.

Unfortunately, any discussion of this WNBA season, including the last month of the regular season and the playoffs, has to include injuries. Napheesa Collier sat out Sunday, the third game she has missed with an ankle injury that was expected to keep her out at least two weeks. Minnesota has won all three games she has missed, and even if the ankle keeps her out for longer than expected, Minnesota should stay in first place. I think another injury to Collier is the only thing that can threaten Minnesota, and even then, it is unlikely their opponents would be completely healthy. Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones, Rhyne Howard, Brittney Griner, Caitlin Clark, Alyssa Thomas, Satou Sabally, Kahleah Copper, and Jordin Canada have all missed significant time this season. That gives some hope to those teams that they can compete with Minnesota when they are fully whole, but at the end of the day, I think Minneapolis should already start planning its victory parade.