Last week when I was trying to determine if anybody could prevent the Lynx from winning a record fifth WNBA championship, I paused to look at the odds for various WNBA awards. My sense from months of following the WNBA was that the Lynx had the frontrunners for several awards, including MVP, Coach of the Year and Most Improved Player. What I found is that my assumptions were not as obvious as I thought. So with that in mind, I am taking this opportunity to break down the races for the major WNBA awards and decide who would get my vote with roughly 10 games left in the season. These opinions could change, but I think it is useful to see where these awards stand on August 21, so that we can evaluate these players down the stretch.

MVP -

1. A’ja Wilson, F, LVA

2. Napheesa Collier, F, MIN

3. Alyssa Thomas, F, PHX

4. Nneka Ogwumike, F, SEA

5. Sabrina Ionescu, G, NYL

I really want my fictitious vote to go to Napheesa Collier, but with her injury and the Aces’ eight-game winning streak, I’m afraid that is a losing argument. Their numbers are awfully close, but Wilson is averaging 2.5 more rebounds per game. She leads the league in blocks per game and is second in rebounds and points. The Aces’ net rating is 27.5 points better when Wilson is on the court, and while I don’t want to give her extra credit for playing on a team with a terrible bench, it isn’t much of a stretch to say Wilson has singlehandedly carried her team into the playoffs. Collier is the best player on the best team, but she has played 135 fewer minutes. She leads the league in ppg, is fourth in steals and fifth in blocks. Her 56.8 effective field goal percentage is the highest among the players wer’re considering.

Alyssa Thomas isn’t the scorer that Collier and Wilson are, but she is currently leading the league in assists and is legitimately Phoenix’s point guard on offense. Despite playing with three former All-Stars, Phoenix’s offense craters when Thomas is off the floor. They have a 106.6 offensive rating when she’s on the court and a 95.5 offensive rating with her off the court. She is fourth in the league in rebounds and eighth in steals, though she is fourth in the league in turnovers.

It is hard to believe we are nine years removed from Ogwumike winning WNBA MVP. She is currently fourth in the WNBA in Player Impact Estimate, behind Wilson, Collier and Thomas. Ogwumike is eighth in ppg and 13th in rpg.

I kind of feel like this last pick has to come from Atlanta or New York, but most of the candidates haven’t played enough, outside of Ionescu and Allisha Gray. Ionescu’s 28.3 percent usage is behind just Wilson and Satou Sabally, and that ultimately gives her the edge. Sabrina is fifth in points per game and seventh in assists while adding 4.9 rebounds and 1.4 steals. She narrowly gets my last spot ahead of Gray and Paige Bueckers.

Rookie of the Year - Paige Bueckers

Sonia Cintron and Kiki Iriafen have played well enough to win, but Bueckers has averaged 3.5 more points and 2.9 more assists per game than Cintron this season. I think Bueckers was actually underrated coming into the WNBA due to injuries and Caitlin Clark’s hype, but Bueckers was the National Player of the Year as a freshman and as a rookie she reminded everyone why. I don’t know that a guard is ever going to win MVP again but if one does, my guess is its Paige Bueckers.

6th Player of the Year - Jessica Shepard

Naz Hillmon, Natisha Hiedeman and DeWanna Bonner also deserve strong consideration, but Shepard’s all-around game and contributions to winning stand out. She is shooting a career-high 60.8 percent from the field while averaging 7.6 points, 7.0 rebounds and 2.4 assists in 20.2 minutes per game. Shepard is seventh in the entire league in Player Impact Estimate and is fifth in effective field goal percentage. Shepard also leads the league in offensive rebound percentage. She has stepped into the starting lineup seamlessly when Napheesa Collier went down, and she is a big reason the Lynx are 4-1 since Collier’s injury.

Most Improved Player - Brittney Sykes

On the surface, Sykes’s numbers are down slightly from 2023, when she averaged 15.9 points, 5.0 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 2.1 steals. This season she is averaging 15.1 points, 3.3 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 1.3 steals. I just think the ask has been so much greater this season. Sykes has always been a good defender and solid complimentary player, but before she was traded, she was the number one offensive option on a playoff team. There aren’t very many players in the league who are capable of that, and for making that leap, I think Sykes deserves the nod here. She didn’t have Elena Delle Donne or Natasha Cloud or Ariel Atkins to shoulder the offensive load.

In addition to the higher degree of difficulty, Sykes also made tangible gains in her ability to get to the free throw line. She is averaging 5.7 free throw attempts per game, well above her career high of 3.8. Only A’ja Wilson, Kelsey Plum and Breanna Stewart are averaging more free throw attempts per game than Brittney Sykes this season. I understand why Veronica Burton, Allisha Gray and Gabby Williams all deserve strong consideration, but I think the way Sykes has thrived in the face of so much more defensive attention should be recognized.

Coach of the Year - Natalie Nakase

This award is tricky because it so often comes down to which team exceeds expectations. The problem with voting that way is we never consider that maybe our expectations were wrong. I’m not saying Natalie Nakase doesn’t deserve credit for her team currently occupying a playoff spot despite consisting mostly of cast-offs from other teams, but maybe its the players who were better than we thought, and not that coach.

At the same time, how much credit does Cheryl Reeve get for the Lynx being 6.5 games ahead of the Liberty and Dream? Minnesota probably should have the best record in the league, though nobody expected them to be this much better than everyone else. You could argue she did a better job this season than last, but she won this award last year and probably won’t this year.

I spent a good part of my last article raving about the job Natalie Nakase has done this season, and I don’t think I need to rehash it too much here. I do think the Valkyries play very smart basketball, from mixing up their defenses to slowing down the pace to shooting the most threes in the league. Maybe it will turn out Kayla Thornton is a multi-time All-Star and Veronica Burton is a long-time starter, but it seems far more likely that Nakase has gotten the most out of them and their teammates, and that’s all you can want from a Coach of the Year.