I’m still not over the fact that the Minnesota Lynx aren’t in the Finals, but we have two excellent teams in the Finals, and it should be a great matchup. The Aces have history on their side, as they ended the regular season on a 16-game winning streak, tied for second-longest in WNBA history. Only three other teams have had winning streaks of at least 15 games, and all three of those teams won the WNBA title. Phoenix is trying to get Alyssa Thomas the first WNBA title of her 12-year WNBA career. There is a lot to love about this matchup, so let’s break it down.

The Aces went 3-1 against Phoenix in the regular season, including two wins during the Aces 16-game winning streak. The first three games were decided by six points or fewer, though Las Vegas won the last game by 22 points. I feel like this series could come down to which team does a better job of hunting mismatches. Both teams have defenders who can be attacked, especially off the bench. In watching the tape, I was surprised at how often both teams seemed not to recognize when they had a mismatch, especially on a switch or in transition.

Satou Sabally, on the other hand, is a walking mismatch. Las Vegas often defended her with smaller guards, and I think she needs to do a better job in those situations of getting into the paint. Sabally has a smooth jump shot, but when she’s pulling up against Jewell Loyd, that is a win for Las Vegas. I wonder if Phoenix will give Sabally more time at the 4 to match her up with NaLyssa Smith, so she can use her speed and shooting to her advantage. I think we could see more Kierstan Bell minutes in this series, as she has the size to give Sabally trouble while chasing her around the perimeter.

Both coaches will have difficult decisions to make regarding their rotations in this series. By my count, both teams have four or five two-way players. I think both teams could go with more defensive-minded options like Bell, Natasha Mack, and Monique Akoa Makani, trusting their stars to make plays on the other end.

Speaking of the stars, I think Phoenix has an advantage because they have more bodies they can throw at A’Ja Wilson. Wilson and Alyssa Thomas will primarily guard each other, but Phoenix can go with Natasha Mack, Satou Sabally, or even DeWanna Bonner at times. Las Vegas will try to steal some possessions with a guard on Thomas, but those require instant double-teams. I’ll also be interested to see if Las Vegas takes a page out of Minnesota’s book and defends Thomas higher up the floor. I think they want A’ja Wilson closer to the paint, but they should definitely change it up more often.

I think this series might come down to the play of Las Vegas’s three All-Star guards. If Chelsea Gray, Jackie Young, and Jewell Loyd can play Kahleah Copper, Satou Sabally, and DeWanna Bonner to a draw, they will have an excellent chance of winning this game. Loyd and, to a lesser extent, Gray both struggled against Indiana. Loyd will spend plenty of time defended by former teammate Sami Whitcomb, and Loyd needs to take advantage of that matchup. She should have the speed advantage, and I would love to see her get more opportunities in the pick-and-roll. Gray did a good job of picking her spots against Indiana in Game 7, going 7-for-12 from the field. She played well against Phoenix in the regular season, and I love it when they use her as a screener. She might have to be even more aggressive in hunting her own shot in this series.

On the surface, Phoenix had the more difficult road to get here. They eliminated both Finals teams from last season despite losing Game 1 in both series. Of course, Phoenix benefitted from injuries to Breanna Stewart and Napheesa Collier. There is a decent chance those series end differently, or the Minnesota series at least goes to five games, without those injuries.

The Aces, meanwhile, were pushed to the brink by a mediocre Seattle team and an undermanned Fever squad. For the first time, the WNBA Finals is a best-of-seven series. Both teams are guaranteed to host two games, with the Aces also hosting games 5 and 7, if necessary.

I have been skeptical of Las Vegas all season, and for the last two months, that has left me looking exceptionally silly. I just think Phoenix has the more complete team, and so long as A’Ja Wilson doesn’t completely outplay Alyssa Thomas, I don’t know how the Aces deal with Phoenix’s depth. I’ll pick Mercury in seven.