How is it already August? It still feels like the WNBA season just started a few weeks ago. With summer rapidly coming to an end, I was excited to get a chance on Saturday to watch a live WNBA game from start to finish for the first time in forever. That I got to see the two best players in the league, A’ja Wilson and Napheesa Collier, go head-to-head was an added bonus.

While I could have just sat back and enjoyed this game, I decided to take the opportunity to finally take a deep dive into the Las Vegas Aces instead. Unfortunately, the biggest takeaway from this game was Napheesa Collier leaving at the end of the third quarter with an ankle injury, but at the time of this writing, we don’t know the severity of the injury. Collier is the clear MVP favorite, and Minnesota obviously needs her healthy for the playoffs, but I think they are deep enough to withstand an injury to Collier for a while. It certainly helps that they are six games up on the second-place Liberty in the standings. Jessica Shepard should join the starting lineup and play significantly more minutes, though Alanna Smith and Maria Kliundikova could get more minutes as well.

While Minnesota’s path forward seems relatively clear, the Aces’ situation is far murkier. It probably isn’t fair to judge the Aces based on one game against the best team in the league, especially when that team goes 13-for-14 on threes in the first half. No team is going to look good when the other team doesn’t miss. Of course, Las Vegas had a hand in that by repeatedly leaving Minnesota’s shooters open, especially Kayla McBride. McBride has arguably the quickest shot in the WNBA, but she didn’t need it with how much space she had on her attempts. She could have moved much more slowly and still gotten her shot off. McBride tied a WNBA record with eight made three-pointers in the first half Saturday, but what was most impressive is she did it without a miss.

This season, Las Vegas has actually done a good job of defending the three-point line, Saturday’s effort notwithstanding. Only Atlanta and Seattle have allowed fewer three-point attempts per 100 possessions. The tradeoff has been a virtual parade to the basket for opposing teams. Only the last-place Sun have allowed more points in the paint per 100 possessions, and only three teams have a lower defensive rebounding rate. Of course, those things go hand-in-hand. When you get into the paint and draw help, there is usually an offensive player in position for a rebound and often a putback.

That being said, the Aces’ problem really hasn’t been on the defensive end. They rank ninth in defensive rating, which is a bit lower than in years past but isn’t terrible. Their defensive rating going into the Minnesota game, 102.6, was nearly identical to their 102.0 defensive rating when they won the championship in 2022. The Aces could get away with an average defense when they were elite on offense, and given their personnel, that was likely always going to be their best path to contention. Unfortunately for Las Vegas, its 102.0 offensive rating is seventh in the league. Coming into this season, they had ranked first or second in offensive rating in five consecutive seasons, during which they had finished no lower than fourth.

Watching Las Vegas and Minnesota on Saturday, the contrast in ball movement was staggering. Minnesota was constantly moving on offense, and the ball never stuck in one place very long. The Aces, on the other hand, seemed like they were mostly standing around waiting for one of their stars to make a play.

The season-long numbers indicate this was not a one-game fluke. Nearly half of the Aces’ two-point field goals are unassisted. Their 47.2% mark is first in the WNBA by a wide margin. The Golden State Valkyries are second at 41.8 percent. That difference of 5.4 percent is the same margin between the Valkyries in second and the Seattle Storm in 11th. Last year, the Aces still led the league, but at 41.5 percent. Since 2020, they haven’t scored more than 43.7 percent of their two-point field goals unassisted. They simply have to do a better job of moving without the ball and cutting. Their offensive players draw plenty of defensive attention, but the Aces can’t take advantage if everyone is standing around.

I was also surprised to see the Aces rank 11th in percentage of points in the paint, nearly tied with the 12th-place Lynx. The difference is the Lynx score more of their points on threes, while the Aces rely more on the midrange. This is probably due in part to Las Vegas’s lack of spacing, but I also just think they need to do a better job getting all the way to the basket. A’ja Wilson is third in points in the paint per game, but she cannot do it all by herself.

Maybe I just can’t let go of the past, but I’m still not giving up on the Aces. I don’t think they can beat the Lynx, but I doubt anyone can. I still think they can match up with just about anyone else, especially since the Liberty, Dream, Mercury, and Fever aren’t exactly running away and hiding. I just think the Aces need to be patient and move the ball more in the halfcourt. I thought in the first half on Saturday the Aces tried to force passes in transition because they didn’t trust their half-court offense, which is how they wound up with eight turnovers in the first half. If they continue to play like that, the Aces are in danger of a first-round playoff exit or missing the playoffs altogether.