One of the many things I love about Sparket is the way the slate changes from week to week. Two weeks ago we had a wide-reaching contest with basketball and soccer picks spanning the entire week. This week’s contest is all-in on Thursday’s five-game WNBA slate. The league has had just one game since Sunday due to Tuesday’s Commissioner’s Cup Final, so all 10 teams should be rested and relatively healthy for what promises to be an entertaining night of basketball.

07/03/25

Indiana Fever Winner (1.8x) vs. Las Vegas Aces

These teams both had .500 records heading into Tuesday and were one game over .500 when their MVP candidates are in the lineup, but that is where the similarities end. Las Vegas has struggled on the road all season, and their -7.5 net rating on the road is the third-worst mark in the league. By contrast, Indiana has a +10.5 net rating at home, fourth-best in the league. The Aces just beat Indiana by eight last week, but that game was in Las Vegas and Caitlin Clark committed eight turnovers while in the midst of a shooting slump. I expect her and her team to play better and pick up a much-needed home win.

Top Scoring Team New York Liberty (3.2x)

New York has lost four of its last five games, but I’m not going to overthink this. New York has averaged 87.6 points per game at home, 2.3 more than any other team. Indiana is fourth at 84.1. Only the Sun and Sky have allowed more points than the Sparks this season. The Sparks have allowed 90+ points twice in the last week, both against a Sky team that entered that stretch with the second-fewest points in the league. If there was ever a get-right game for the struggling Liberty, this is it.

Top Points Scorer Caitlin Clark (4.4X)

Clark is well behind the other three players in points per game overall, but she is averaging 23.4 ppg at home. Breanna Stewart is tops in the league at 23.6. A’ja Wilson is averaging 21.7 ppg on the road while Kelsey Plum averages 19.9. Based on that alone, we are getting a fantastic payout to back Clark. Clark was 1-23 on threes in her last three games heading into Tuesday’s Commissioner’s Cup, but she can’t possibly shoot that poorly for long. This might be our only chance all season to get her at such great odds.

Washington Mystics +9.5 points (2.0X)

The Mystics have lost just two games by double-digits all season. I get that they are on the road against the best team in the league, but I also think the Lynx could be in for a letdown following the Commissioner’s Cup Final. Last year they lost to a 3-14 Dallas team two days after winning the Commissioner’s Cup. I’m not necessarily predicting another loss, but a close win would suit our purposes just fine.

Top Points Scorer Allisha Gray (4.2X)

Don’t look now, but Gray is averaging 19.5 ppg this season, ahead of Diggins and Sykes. I think the Mystics have the defensive personnel to at least make Napheesa Collier work for her points, and that puts everyone in play. Rhyne Howard is day-to-day with a left upper body injury, and if she is limited or out for this game, Gray will likely have to pick up more of the scoring slack.