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September 23, 2025

Lynx Still in Driver’s Seat after Game 1

Steve Pimental

We have been talking for months now about how the Lynx were head-and-shoulders above the rest of the league. The other seven playoff teams were relatively even, but the Lynx stood out in terms of record, consistency, and net rating. The playoffs have been more of the same, as the Lynx are the only team who have not yet lost a game. Much like we did in the first round, we learned a lot from the semifinal Game 1s on Sunday, so let’s break it on down.


The Aces are in Trouble


If we learned anything from Round 1, it should be not to overreact to one game. The Mercury were the only home team to lose in Game 1 and they blew out the Liberty in Game 2 to eventually advance.The Aces looked unbeatable in Game 1 last week but barely squeaked out a win in Game 3. That being said, they lost home court after wasting a career game from Dana Evans. She almost certainly won’t play that well.



Chelsea Gray and Jewell Loyd need to be more aggressive.


Gray was second on the Aces in field goal attempts, going 5-12 from the field for 13 points. I thought she settled for midrange shots when she had opportunities to get all the way to the rim. Indiana’s guards made Dana Evans of all people look like an All-Star. If Evans can consistently get all the way to the rim, Gray and Loyd should be able to as well.


I thought Loyd was largely invisible. She had been much, much better since coming off the bench, but she reverted to the passivity she displayed as a starter. She can’t get outplayed by Odyssey Sims and Lexie Hull.



Las Vegas needs Cheyenne Parker-Tyus


Parker-Tyus was -9 in 4:36 after averaging 9 mpg against Seattle. She is still working her way back after giving birth in July, but she is the Aces only two-way post player outside of A’ja Wilson. NaLyssa Smith was basically unplayable in Game 1, and while the Aces got eight strong minutes from Megan Gustafson, I don’t think they can count on that going forward. If Parker-Tyus can give them good minutes off the bench, it would go a long way towards getting back in this series.



It's going to be a long series for Las Vegas if they’re never going to call a foul on Lexie Hull.


I cannot even begin to explain how Lexie Hull was only called for one personal foul. She what she lacks in quickness on defense she makes up with physicality, and part of the strategy is to foul so often that they cannot possibly call them all. Indiana does not have the depth to withstand foul trouble from any of their starters, so I will be watching closely how this series is officiated going forward. The Aces need to do a better job of attacking her off the dribble. Chelsea Gray, Jackie Young and Jewell Loyd are all capable of playing the point, and any time one of them is guarded by Hull, I would have them bring the ball up and attack off the bounce.



A’ja Wilson has to be better


On the one hand, a lot of her 16 misses were makable shots around the basket. On the other hand I thought Indiana, and especially Aliyah Boston, did a great job of making her work for every touch and every shot. Midway through the third quarter, the ESPN broadcast showed a graphic that Wilson was 1-9 when guarded by Boston, and she immediately missed her next shot when guarded by Boston. She will definitely be better going forward, but I think it would help if the Aces could get one of their other All-Stars going so the entire defense can’t collapse on Wilson.



Kelsey Mitchell was the best player in Game 1


Mitchell was fifth in MVP voting and was the second guard, trailing only Allisha Gray. Mitchell’s 34 points were the second-most for a Fever player in the playoffs, and I think the most impressive part was the way all of her points seemed to come in the flow of the offense. As usual, she did a great job moving without the ball and attacking when she had an advantage. I don’t know that the Aces have any answer for her, though I might try to play Jewell Loyd more minutes so that she can take that matchup as much as possible.



The Lynx are a second-half team


The Lynx are the deepest team in the league, and I still think they should have had the sixth player of the year over Naz Hillmon of the Dream. Their depth especially shows up in the second halves of games, when they are generally the fresher team. Minnesota had a 14.9 net rating in second halves in the regular season, compared to 9.1 in the first halves.


For the second consecutive playoff game, Minnesota trailed big at the half but mounted a second-half comeback. I think that trend could continue, especially if Minnesota makes the WNBA finals.



Minnesota’s offense is very impressive


I don’t think it's hyperbole to say Minnesota got a good shot nearly every time down the floor. The Lynx shot just 31.0 percent on threes, but based on the looks they got and the players getting those shots, the Mercury got pretty lucky. Minnesota does a great job of screening off the ball to generate open looks, but I was really impressed at how many threes they got out of the pick-and-roll. Phoenix understandably wants to guard that action two-on-two, but they may need to blitz that action occasionally and force somebody else to make a play. Courtney Williams and Kayla McBride are too good to let them just walk into open threes.



Phoenix won’t shoot this poorly again


If Phoenix is going to take a positive out of this game, it that it felt pretty similar to their Game 1 loss to the Liberty. Phoenix missed a ton of shots in that game, most notably by Satou Sabally. We said after that game that they couldn’t possibly shoot that poorly again, and they proceeded to win the next two games and the series. Phoenix was 3-for-23 on threes after shooting 34 percent beyond the arc in the regular season. They aren’t likely to win a three-point contest against Minnesota, but they have to shoot better to keep the defense honest.



Minnesota has to avoid switching on defense


Phoenix did a great job getting Courtney Wiliams or Natisha Hiedeman switched onto a big and then attacking that matchup. Minnesota could afford to switch more with DiJonai Carrington in the game, but after Carrington suffered a season-ending foot injury, that won’t be as much of an option in this series.

About the Author

Steve Pimental would rather write 20,000 words about Stef Dolson than write two sentences about himself. He lives near Chicago with his beagle/shepard mix, Hootie.

Lynx Still in Driver’s Seat after Game 1
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