Less than a week ago, I predicted a close WNBA Finals series. The Aces had barely escaped both of their playoff series with wins, while Phoenix had dispatched last season’s Finals teams in consecutive series. Through two games, that close series has only materialized in the first half. The Aces have managed to pull away in the second half of both home games, and if that trend continues, Phoenix will be going home in short order.

On some level, it is too soon for Phoenix to panic. They are going back home for the next two games of this seven-game series, and if they just can just defend their home court, they can even this series. On the other hand, they need to win four of the next five games to give Alyssa Thomas her first WNBA championship. To get there, they will have to play much better than they did in Las Vegas. So, let’s take a look at what they need to do to get there.

Lean on their defensive lineups.

This might be a little counterintuitive. If anything, Phoenix’s problems have been more on the offensive end than the defensive end. That being said, Natasha Mack is the only Mercury player with a positive +/- in both games, and Monique Akoa Makani is third in +/- in the series, behind Satou Sabally. You could argue that Mack especially is more effective in fewer minutes, but considering both players are starters, it's not like they’re feasting on bench units. Akoa Makani might be Phoenix’s only two-way player outside of the big three, and I think she needs more than the 26 minutes she played in the first two games.

Another reason to lean on Phoenix’s defenders is that the offensive players have been ineffective. Sami Whitcomb, Kathryn Westbeld and DeWanna Bonner are a combined 7-for-34 from the field through two games. There is a strong possibility they will shoot better at home the next two games, but if the offense is going to struggle anyway, they can at least make Las Vegas work more on the other end.

Push the pace.

Phoenix was third in the league in pace in the regular season, and first among the eight playoff teams. They didn’t get very many easy looks in game two, but what few they got came in transition or semi-transition. Even when Phoenix doesn’t force a turnover, I think they need to play faster to try to open up more advantages. If the Mercury can set their defense and get the matchups they want, they have shown they can make things very difficult for Phoenix’s offense.

Attack mismatches.

I lost track of how many times Alyssa Thomas got matched on Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray or Jewell Loyd and passed out of it rather than try to attack the basket or draw a double-team. Las Vegas’s guards did do a good job of attacking the dribbles of Thomas and Satou Sabally and forcing some turnovers, but Phoenix has to find a better way of turning those situations in their favor.

Utilize the Thomas-Sabally two-man game.

Sabally got floater in the lane at the end of the third quarter following a dribble-handoff with Alyssa Thomas. It probably helped that both forwards were defended by guards on that possession, but that is kind of the point. One or both of them are getting matched up with a guard a ton, and rather than trying to dribble-drive or throw the ball into the post, this gives Phoenix another way to attack that doesn’t just involve going one-on-one. This could be a way to get DeWanna Bonner going as well. Maybe use her as a screener for Thomas and force the defense to make some difficult decisions.

Put Alyssa Thomas on Jackie Young

The problem with this approach is that it takes Thomas off A’Ja Wilson, and unlike Thomas, Wilson had no problem in that game punishing weaker defenders. That being said, Natasha Mack and/or Satou Sabally can probably steal a few possessions on Wilson here and there. I noted two possessions in the second half when Thomas defended Young. They might have been the only two possessions Young didn’t score on in the second half. Thomas can play off Young a little bit and try to bait her into pull-up threes, like she did at the end of the third quarter. I don’t think they can play that way all the time, but I like it as a changeup, especially when Monique Akoa Makani is on the bench.