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June 3, 2025

Four Early-Season Stats to Know

Steve Pimental

On Monday, we took a deep dive into the Atlanta Dream’s 5-2 start and evaluated their status as second-tier contenders. I really enjoyed breaking down their stats to this point and speculating on what Atlanta could do to improve going forward. Let me know in our Discord if you found that useful, and what kind of content you would like to see going forward.


We are doing something similar with today’s article, but rather than focus on the season stats for one team, I have picked out a handful of stats around the league I find interesting and/or surprising. We will take a look at why these stats stand out and what, if anything, they mean going forward.


1. The Liberty’s starters' minutes are down.


This started out about Sabrina Ionescu, but as I dug in, I realized it actually had little to do with her and everything to do with the team as a whole. Sabrina and Breanna Stewart are averaging the fewest minutes of their careers. Natasha Cloud is averaging her fewest minutes since 2018, and Jonquel Jones and Leonie Fiebich are also down significantly from last season.


It made some sense that the starters’ minutes would be down since the Liberty added Rebekah Gardner and Isabelle Harrison in the offseason to what was already a fairly strong bench. It stood to reason that the better the bench played, the less the starters would be needed. Instead, I found the starters are playing fewer minutes because the Liberty are blowing everyone out. For instance, Sabrina Ionescu played 37 minutes at Indiana and 36 in the second game against the Valkyries, which were the only two games New York has won by fewer than 14 points this season. The starters are playing a lot when they need to; they just haven’t needed to. 


I plan to keep an eye on how much rest New York’s starters are able to get going forward. Their net rating is 25. 1, more than double their league-best 11.7 net rating last season. The 2023 Las Vegas Aces hold the record for best net rating in a season at 15.3, so the Liberty will inevitably come back down to Earth. They have played just one game against a team that currently has a winning record, and once that changes, the rest could be harder to come by. That being said, while the Liberty and Lynx separate themselves from the rest of the league, the wear-and-tear on their best players could determine who has the advantage in the playoffs. Napheesa Collier is currently third in the league at 35.5 minutes per game while Bridget Carleton is 17th at 31.3 and Courtney Williams is 28th with 29.4 mpg. Sabrina Ionescu leads the Liberty with 28.8 mpg, good for 31st in the league. If that trend continues all season, I like the Liberty’s chances to repeat as WNBA champions.


2. Naz Hillmon leads the league in effective field goal percentage.


This is among players averaging at least four minutes per game. I don’t know that I even mentioned Hillmon in my Dream article, but that was probably an oversight. Atlanta started winning once Hillmon became entrenched in the rotation. She has averaged 17.9 minutes per game in Atlanta’s five wins and 3.7 minutes per game in their two losses. Hillmon’s effective field goal percentage has gone up in every year of her four-year career, and while a jump of nearly 20 points from last season seems unlikely to sustain, it seems clear she has improved yet again. One thing to keep an eye on is Hillmon’s three-point percentage. She was 1-6 from beyond the arc in 114 career games prior to this season, and she is 4-10 in 2025. That’s not the main reason her effective field goal percentage is so high, but it would be quite valuable for Atlanta if Hillmon’s three-ball became a real weapon.


3. The Washington Mystics lead the league in free-throw attempt rate.


The Mystics were ninth in offensive rating last season, and with Ariel Atkins gone, I didn’t think there was any way they would score enough points this season to be competitive. That still may be the case, but they are firmly in the middle of the pack with a  3-4 record thanks to ranking fourth in offensive rebound percentage and first in free throw rate. Brittney Sykes leads the league with 11.2 free throw attempts per game, 3.6 more than any other player. Sykes currently ranks 118th in effective field goal percentage and second in usage, so she and her teammates need to continue to get to the line at an elite rate if they are going to stay in the playoff race.


4. The Seattle Storm are third in the league in fast break points but 12th in pace.


I plan to pay close attention to this the next time I watch the Storm. Skylar Diggins and Gabby Williams have always been effective in transition, and both are off to strong starts to the season, but I can’t say I’ve noticed a ton of fast-break points in the games I have seen. Seattle is eighth in the league in steals but third in points off turnovers, so the only conclusion I can draw is that they are being selective when they do run and converting their fast break opportunities at a high rate. Seattle has been as middle-of-the-pack as it comes this season, with a 3-4 record and a -0.4 net rating. They look relatively safe to make the playoffs, but that could change if the fast-break points dry up. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Seattle’s coaching staff lean into this strength and try to force more turnovers. With as good as they have been in transition, it might be worth it to gamble to create more transition opportunities, even if that could lead to more open looks for opponents.

About the Author

Steve Pimental would rather write 20,000 words about Stef Dolson than write two sentences about himself. He lives near Chicago with his beagle/shepard mix, Hootie.

Four Early-Season Stats to Know
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