The WNBA historically hasn’t had many significant mid-season trades, due in part to the league’s hard salary cap. In the past 10 years, there are probably only two trades that significantly impacted the title race: Sylvia Fowles in 2016 and Marina Mabrey last season. You could argue how impactful the Mabrey trade was, but the Sun finished with the three seed and took the Minnesota Lynx to five games in the semi-finals, so that seems significant to me. Despite the historically fallow nature of the WNBA trade deadline, there are a few reasons to believe this season will buck that trend.

The primary reason that we could see more player movement leading up to the trade deadline is that nearly everyone who isn’t on a rookie-scale contract will be an unrestricted free agent after the season. That means the teams that aren’t going to make the playoffs have no incentive to hold onto their veterans. They may as well try to get whatever they can now, rather than losing those players in free agency. The upcoming free agency free-for-all could also give added incentive to contending teams to try to add the final piece(s) of the puzzle. This could be the last playoff run for long-time contenders like the Aces, Liberty, and even Lynx. I think those teams will probably be free-agent destinations due to having good coaches and facilities, but nothing is certain beyond this season. If they have a chance to add a difference-maker this season and don’t, they might not get another shot anytime soon.

Another reason we could see increased trade activity this season is that the standings are relatively wide open. For the last few seasons, we have had 2-3 serious title contenders who probably weren’t going to be caught no matter what the rest of the league did. This season, the playoff picture is wide open outside of the top seed. Minnesota is 3.5 games ahead of the second-place Liberty, and barring poor injury luck, they will almost certainly be the number one seed and make the WNBA Finals for a second consecutive season. Second place and eighth place in the standings are separated by just 4.5 games. The Liberty and Mercury look like the most serious threats to the Lynx, but the Fever and Aces are lurking if they can ever get right. Seattle and Atlanta have been surprisingly good as well, though it remains to be seen if that is sustainable. Those six teams can all reasonably feel like they are one trade away from being the second-best team in the league, and that could be the perfect storm for trade season to bubble over. If one contender makes a trade, it could spur an arms race up to the deadline.

Both of the two previously impactful inseason trades came about as a result of good players asking out of a bad team, and we have already seen that once this season with Li Yueru requesting a trade out of Seattle and making her way to Dallas. That trade won’t have much of an impact on the playoff race unless Seattle suffers some frontcourt injuries, but it does demonstrate that player empowerment is alive and well. If a relatively obscure center can force her way off a playoff team, more established vets can probably find their way to contenders if they wish.

The more significant trade this season involved a player who didn’t want to be traded, as the same Wings moved forward NaLyssa Smith to the Las Vegas Aces for the Aces’ 2027 first-round draft pick. The Aces’ entire starting lineup, including Smith, will be free agents after this season, so that draft pick could be quite valuable. Even so, Smith might A’ja Wilson’s best frontcourt mate since Liz Cambage. The Aces have made the semi-finals in six consecutive seasons, and they still have a decent shot of making it seven straight, so long as they can climb out of the eighth seed.

The Connecticut Sun have also made six consecutive semi-finals, though their streak will certainly end this season. Connecticut has the worst record in the league, and while the Chicago Sky owns swap rights on that pick, any hope of not conveying a high pick this season has likely gone out the window. Marina Mabrey already requested a trade in the off-season after forcing her way to Connecticut last year, but the Sun have thus far been unwilling to move her. Mabrey has been out for four weeks with a knee injury, but if she can return shortly after the All-Star break and stay healthy, Connecticut should be able to move her to a contender. Mabrey’s a career 35.8 percent three-point shooter who can also provide secondary ball-handling and playmaking. That makes her a fit with every playoff team, which is why the Sun and Sky traded for her previously. She probably makes the most sense in Atlanta, since she could help replace Rhyne Howard and then play next to Howard when Howard returns from her own knee injury, but somebody should rescue her from Connecticut.

To the surprise of no one outside of the Chicago Sky front office, trading the number three overall pick and a 2027 first-round pick swap to Washington for one year of Ariel Atkins has backfired. The Sky are four games out of the last playoff spot, while rookie Sonia Citron, who was drafted with that pick, made the All-Star team over Atkins and several other strong candidates. Like Connecticut, Chicago won’t be able to recoup everything they gave up for Atkins, but they should get something for the two-time All-Star who has made five All-Defensive Teams. Like Mabrey, Atkins is miscast as her team’s primary perimeter scorer, but Atkins has shot 36.1 percent on threes in her career. Atkins might fit in Atlanta even more than Mabrey, but I think Atkins’s defense would be perfect in New York, where the Liberty have struggled to stop anybody on the perimeter with Betnijah Laney-Hamilton out.

The Los Angeles Sparks are arguably the most interesting of the possible sellers. They have too much talent to be 8-14, and they are positioned reasonablly well for the future with Cameron Brink and Rikea Jackson not set to hit restricted free agency until 2028. My best guess is that the Sparks will try to re-sign Kelsey Plum to build around her and their young forwards, but Dearica Hamby and Azura Stevens are both former WNBA champions who could help just about any team in the league. Stevens is a better floor spacer but Hamby is probably better defensively.

The Dallas Wings are interesting because they have already been involved in two trades this season. Their new front office under General Manager Curt Miller is pretty clearly focused on the future, but it is unclear how much he has to trade. Arike Ogunbowale has proven this season that she does not contribute to winning basketball. DiJonai Carrington has value as a two-way guard, though her lack of floor spacing could hurt teams in the playoffs. Carrington is currently third in rebounds per game among guards, and she could be a perfect fit for the Storm, who don’t shoot a ton of threes but have the second-lowest rebounding rate in the league. Seattle probably isn’t going to shake up its frontcourt rotation but Carrington could slot perfectly into the starting lineup next to Gabby Williams and Skylar Diggins. She would also allow Erica Wheeler to move into a bench role. Maybe they could make a three-team trade that would send Erica Wheeler to Phoenix, since the Mercury are somehow third in the league despite not having a veteran point guard on the roster.

In addition to the borderline All-Stars who could be moved before the deadline, there are some significant bigs who shouldn’t be overlooked. Tina Charles could provide a scoring punch off the bench, though she could probably start for at least a couple of playoff teams. Elizabeth Williams is the perfect third big for any playoff team thanks to her defense and rebounding. Emma Cannon could be a quality backup as well, and would fit into a lot of team’s salary structures. Myisha Hines-Allen can probably be the third big on a playoff team though her per-36-minute production is as low as its ever been in her eight-year WNBA career. Still, most of the teams in the playoff race could use at least one backup big, and there should be no shortage of options available for trade.