The WNBA’s Commissioner’s Cup has a short but compelling four-year history. The first three winners all won the WNBA title within a year of winning the Cup and last year’s Cup winner, the Minnesota Lynx, is the favorite to win the title this season. The last two Cup finals wound up being previews of the WNBA finals, with the team that lost the Cup going on to win the Championship. From that point of view, maybe the Lynx wouldn’t mind losing on Tuesday.

The Aces and Liberty won the Cup in 2022 and 2023, respectively, only to lose in the Cup final the following year. The Lynx are looking to break that trend and become the first back-to-back Commissioner’s Cup winners, but they will have to get through the Indiana Fever to do it.

Any preview of the Commissioner’s Cup Final has to begin with the groin injury that has kept Caitlin Clark out of the last two games. Fever head coach Stephanie White said on Thursday that Clark was “day-to-day,” so I am hopeful she will return for this game. The Fever are, unsurprisingly, a very different team with Clark in the lineup.

When Clark is on the floor, Indiana averages 99.64 possessions per 40 minutes, which would be well above the league-leading Liberty at 97.52. By way of contrast, Indiana’s pace with Clark off the court is 94.06, just slower than the 12th-place Lynx. I will be watching the pace very closely in the first quarter. If Minnesota is able to slow the game down and make Indiana score in the halfcourt, they will have an excellent chance to win this game.

Minnesota has allowed just two opponents to top 80 points all season. On the other side, the Fever have failed to reach 80 points in just one of Caitlin Clark’s nine games. Which of those trends holds in this game may come down to three-point shooting. Both of these teams are in the middle of the pack in three-point attempts per game and the percentage of their points that are scored on threes. That is where the similarities end. 

Minnesota leads the league in three-point percentage, making 36.9 percent. Indiana’s opponents have shot just 27.5 percent on threes this season, the lowest mark in the league. I still think that is more due to luck than anything Indiana is doing defensively, but if the Lynx miss their threes, Indiana will have an excellent shot at winning this game.

I think casual fans think the Fever bomb a ton of threes thanks to Caitlin Clark, Lexie Hull and Sophie Cunningham, but as we saw above, that hasn’t been the case. They are average not just in three-point attempts but also three-point percentage, at 34.5 percent. Where Indiana leads the league is in points in the paint. Minnesota has allowed the fifth-fewest points in the paint. As good as Aliyah Boston and Natasha Howard are one-on-one, I don’t think Indiana can just dump the ball into the post and let those two go to work like they can against other teams. I think the guards are going to have to bend the defense and find the bigs rolling to the basket.

Speaking of the guards, I don’t know how Courtney Williams and Kayla McBride are going to stay in front of Caitlin Clark and Kelsey Mitchell. Minnesota’s forwards are probably going to be forced to help defend the paint, which could lead to open threes for Hull and Cunningham. Minnesota has the best defensive rating in the league, but I think they will be tested in this game.

On the other end, Indiana will be challenged to stick close to shooters and communicate when they are forced into rotation. The Lynx have four players shooting at least 38.8 percent on at least 3.4 three-point attempts per game. Courtney Williams has notably doubled her three-point attempt rate from last season, which makes her so much more difficult to defend.

It is probably gross negligence on my part that we have gone this long without mentioning last season’s Cup MVP, Napheesa Collier. Collier is the favorite to win league MVP this season, for reasons I outlined in my All-Star Ballot, and she gives Indiana all kinds of matchup problems. Collier averaged 28.5 points in two games against Indiana last season, more than against any other team. Indiana has a new coach and some new personnel, but I still don’t think they have anyone who can defend Coller one-on-one. Aliyah Boston and Natasha Howard have the size and athleticism to battle Collier inside but I’m not sure they can chase Collier around the perimeter and off the three-point line. Sophie Cunningham is a defensive pest in the best way possible, but lacks the size to keep Collier out of the paint. My best guess is that Indiana will throw multiple bodies at Collier but will try not to help off of the shooters on the perimeter. Collier averaged just 1.5 assists against Indiana last season, fewer than any other opponent, and that may be what it takes for Indiana to win this game.

No Commissioner’s Cup Final has been decided by fewer than five points, but given these two teams’ contrasting styles and offsetting strengths and weaknesses, that streak could end Tuesday. Whether we have our fifth different Cup winner or our first repeat champion, history will be made. This game should be lots of fun, especially if it turns out to be a preview of the WNBA Finals.