Heading into their third year of competition, Bay FC is on its second head coach, having hired Emma Coates to replace the outgoing Albertin Montoya. While Coates and new assistant Gamma Davies have experience coaching the England Women’s U-23 squad, turning around a recent expansion team that had the second-worst record last season is a different kind of challenge.

Bay FC made the playoffs in their first season, and I wonder if that set unrealistic expectations for 2025. Bay FC had a -10 goal differential in their first season, but in a year in which just six of the 14 teams had a positive goal differential, that was enough to finish with 34 points and seventh place.

Bay FC had a -15 goal differential in 2025, but in a league that was more balanced from top to bottom than in the previous season, they finished 13th. Bay FC lost 14 games in both seasons but they managed just four wins in 2025 compared to 11 wins in 2024.

One throughline in both seasons was that Bay FC severely underperformed their expected goals on both offense and defense. They had a -1.2 xGD this season and a -0.6 xGD in 2024. If Bay FC wasn’t as good as their playoff berth indicated in their inaugural season, they probably weren’t as bad as their 13th-place finish last season, either.

What does that mean for Emma Coates going forward? On the one hand, I’m not sure wholesale changes are needed. They could get into playoff contention just by performing closer to their expected numbers. They also have the benefit of youth. Seven of their top eight players in minutes played were 26 years or younger this season. Of the 25 players who saw the field, only four were in their 30s and none was older than 32. Leading goalscorer Penelope Hocking is just 25 years old and had scored five goals in eight games before she was forced to miss seven weeks with a stress injury in her left foot. Hocking was the only player on the team to overperform her xG and her 0.62 goals per 90 minutes was three times better than anyone else on the team.

I thought the other real revelation offensively for Bay was 25-year-old Zambian forward Racheal Kundananji. When they were able to generate quality chances, many of them came from Kundananji working on one of the wings and creating an opportunity for herself or her teammates. She led Bay FC in goals plus assists in both seasons, and I think Emma Coates would do well to find even more creative ways to get Kundananji on the ball with space.

On the other side of the ball, Bay FC could expect to get better goalkeeping from 25-year-old Jordan Silkowitz. In her first NWSL season her numbers were pretty average, but there is some cause for optimism. Silkowitz’s post-shot xG was nearly identical to her goals allowed, which means she more or less saved the shots she should have and allowed the goals she should have. I would say that is pretty solid work for someone making the leap from the Australian A-League to the NWSL. That stat also leads me to believe that the discrepancy between Bay FC’s goals allowed and expected goals allowed may have more to do with the quality of the shots faced rather than a lack of quality from the keeper.

One big difference in Bay FC’s two NWSL seasons is the number of cards. Only three teams were shown fewer yellow cards than Bay FC in 2024, but they were shown the second-most yellow cards in 2025. I would be tempted to chalk that up to youth, but five teams were younger by weighted age last season. I think it would be more accurate to say there was a lack of discipline at times, and that may be one of the areas where Emma Coates can make an immediate impact.

The other area where she could make a mark is in giving the team an identity. I’m not really sure they had one last season. Bay FC were middle of the pack in goalkeeper passes and launch percentage as well as crosses faced. Offensively, they relied almost exclusively on in-swinging corner kicks. They had just four outswinging corners, 10 fewer than any other team in the league. It didn’t work particularly well, as only the Seattle Reign had fewer shots from free kicks than Bay FC.

Bay FC broke ground on a new performance facility in September, and between that and the new coaching hire, they appear to be heading in the right direction. I will be interested to see what kind of changes they make to the roster in the offseason, but I think they will be a lot more competitive in their third season.